The Crystal Ball of US Intelligence

The following conclusions represent the 2020 global landscape trends reported by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in a recent report titled: 'Mapping the Global Future'. The NIC is the US Intelligence Community's center for midterm and long-term strategic thinking.

Relative Certainties:

Globalization largely irreversible, likely to become less Westernized.

World economy substantially larger.

Increasing number of global firms facilitate spread of new technologies.

Rise of Asia and advent of possible new economic middle-weights.

Aging populations in established powers.

Energy supplies “in the ground” sufficient to meet global demand.

Growing power of nonstate actors.

Political Islam remains a potent force.

Improved WMD capabilities of some states.

Arc of instability spanning Middle East, Asia, Africa.

Great power conflict escalating into total war unlikely.

Environmental and ethical issues even more to the fore.

US will remain single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily.

Key Uncertainties:

Whether globalization will pull in lagging economies; degree to which Asian countries set new “rules of the game.”

Extent of gaps between “haves” and “have-nots”; backsliding by fragile democracies; managing or containing financial crises.

Extent to which connectivity challenges governments.

Whether rise of China/India occurs smoothly.

Ability of EU and Japan to adapt work forces, welfare systems, and integrate migrant populations; whether EU becomes a superpower.

Political instability in producer countries; supply disruptions.

Willingness and ability of states and international institutions to accommodate these actors.

Impact of religiosity on unity of states and potential for conflict; growth of jihadist ideology.

More or fewer nuclear powers; ability of terrorists to acquire biological, chemical, radiological, or nuclear weapons.

Precipitating events leading to overthrow of regimes.

Ability to manage flashpoints and competition for resources.

Extent to which new technologies create or resolve ethical dilemmas.

Whether other countries will more openly challenge Washington; whether US loses S&T edge.