A Word On Egypt Before I Run

The election “reforms” announced by President Mubarak weeks ago have drawn the interest of many around the world including within political circles here in the US. Initially, I thought President Bush reacted well to the announcement by describing the move as encouraging but cautioning that more needs to be done in order to ensure free and transparent elections in Egypt. The president repeated that theme as he prepared to meet with the Egyptian Prime minister last week. President Bush insisted on independent international monitors , guarantees for equal access to media and a halt to intimidation tactics used against opposition candidates. Several weeks ago, Secretary Rice delayed a planned visit to Egypt in order to protest against the jailing of an opposition leader by Egyptian authorities. Signs were emerging for the first time that the US government was willing to openly challenge one of its closest authoritarian allies in the region. It was great news for those of us who are hoping for a new beginning in the region; a new US policy direction that would stress justice and democracy over short-term US interests.

Today, the first lady called the "initiative" taken by Mr. Mubarak both "wise and bold". This, obviously, shocked me. It shocked me because the first lady should have known better. But, maybe she was just repeating what her aides told her to say. If this is the case, then I would be even more disappointed. See, I think the world of Laura Bush. I think she is the jewel of the Bush White House; the classiest first lady since Jackie Kennedy. That is why her statement is so frustrating to me. Therefore, I think she would pardon my intransigence when I say that her statement about Mubarak’s plan is extremely ill-informed. Here is why.

First, the so-called Mubarak "initiative" is a political trap that seeks no immediate opening up of the electoral system. In other words, it is smoking mirrors or, if you wish, a delay tactic used to extend the power grip of the ruling party under the guise of reform and democracy. Ninety percent of the current parliament in Egypt is controlled by the ruling party. Let me repeat that, 90%!! The proposed amendment to "reform" the electoral system requires presidential candidates to collect 300 signatures from "elected" officials in the "People's Assembly", the Shura Council and local assemblies. It further restricts nominations to members of party politburos. Good luck getting anywhere if you are an independent candidate - it simply won't happen.

Furthermore, this is an authoritarian regime whose ruling party controls all the political, security and defense institutions in Egypt. Now, have you heard of the vetting process used by the Ayatollahs to approve presidential candidates in Iran - it has been in the news lately. Well, what Mubarak and his party are proposing is not that dissimilar from that. Even when we assume no election fraud and no vote manipulation, how would anyone opposed to them obtain 300 signatures from them to run against them!!

Then, there is the issue of intimidation and vote fraud, which have been a fixture in every Egyptian "election" so far. The ruling party will flood the parliament with its agents (as has always been the case), require in the next election that presidential candidates must hail from a party that has at least 5% of the seats while they themselves control 90 percent and lock themselves institutionally, through something they sell to the west as "reform", into a position of power for many years to come. Nicely done!!

Look, this just can not go on the way it is. People's intelligence can not continue to be insulted in this manner by power-hungry dictators and our complicit silence about it. Now, I do not care how popular a government or a political party is, but there is no way, and I say no way, to consistently "win" over 90% of the vote when, among other things, the daily situation of ordinary citizens is by all indicators worsening. It just defies all sorts of logic unless Egyptians are into self-punishment, which I highly doubt. In fact, Egyptians have a long tradition of intellectual brilliance, which is the reason I truly believe that an internal victory for democracy in Egypt would have an immensely positive impact on the region as a whole -- the ever-ellusive Domino effect theory.

So, Madam First Lady, with all the respect that I have for you, I wish you could reconsider your statement. Even if we actually believe that Mubarak has had a call of conscience, which is highly unlikely, and decided to fly straight and grant freedom and democracy to the people of Egypt, wouldn’t we be excessive in describing him as “wise and bold”. Would you ever describe a decision by an abusive parent to beat their children less frequently as “wise and bold”. Don’t you think that would be insulting to the victims in this case? I do. Unless of course you are trying to use the negative image of the US in the Middle East to give Mubarak the ‘Kiss of Death’, hence, achieving the opposite of the impression you gave – Then, as the English would say: Brilliant!!